Are you drinking what he’s drinking?
At this time of year, most of us enjoy a festive tipple or two. Judging by David Cameron’s New Year message’ I can only assume that he’s spent rather too long tasting the contents of his wine cellar. Taking up the LibDem lovebombing baton from Eric Pickles (what a thought!), he said:
“Let’s be honest that whether you’re Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat, you’re motivated by pretty much the same progressive aims: a country that is safer, fairer, greener and where opportunity is more equal.
“It’s how to achieve these aims that we disagree about – and indeed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats there is a lot less disagreement than there used to be.”
At the risk of having the ring of Mandy Rice-Davies, I couldn’t disagree more with these statements. I’m not sure that Cameron has any idea what a fair Britain would look like. Whilst the Conservatives want to cut taxes for millionaires and married couples, the LibDems would help those on lower incomes, by removing all those who earn less than £10,000 a year from the tax system, and give a real helping hand to lift all children out of the curse of poverty and underachievement. A government committed to fairness would not charge tuition fees to thoise seeking to improve themselves and the country’s competitiveness through higher education.
The LibDems have been questioning MPs’ expenses since the last General Election, but the Conservatives only saw this as an issue when the Telegraph started publicising details of duck houses and moats. And Cameron’s recent conversion to preventing non-domssitting in either House only came after adverse publicity for both Zac Goldsmith and Lord Ashcroft. A fairer Britain would also see electoral reform, bringing in proportional representation, so that every elector’s vote counts and every MP has to fight for their seat, not rely on the inheritance of a safe seat.
A safer Britain would see policies to tackle the root causes of crime and a review of what sentences work, rather than which please the Daily Mail. It would also see support for the European Arrest Warrant, rather than a knee-jerk response of support for everything that is anti-European. And whilst we are mentioning Europe, any sort of sense from Dave would mean the UK’s Conservative MEPs withdrawing from the oddball collection of the ECR group and returning to the EPP group, where he might be able to form some useful alliances with Merkel and Sarkozy.
I don’t think there are many Conservatives outside the Cameroons’ inside circle who have ever believed the ‘Vote Blue, Go Green’ mantra. Certainly not David Davis MP, who would have been Tory leader had they election been held under their preferred FPTP system. We need urgent action which includes increasing taxes on polluting activities, not simply a few ‘voluntary arrangements’. We also need a Prime Minister who realises that a commitment to environmentalism is more than flying to the Arctic for a photo opportunity with huskies or cycling to work, with a chauffeur following to carry your papers and shoes.
So having dismissed the thought that Cameron might be being honest and straightforward, what is he trying to achieve from this early greeting? The obvious answer to that is ‘a working majority after the next General Election’. So this cuddling up is not simply a direct appeal to current LibDem voters, but also a subliminal message to all voters. Cameron must realise that the chances of gaining votes straight from the LibDems either on policies or quality of candidate is virtually nil. But as the chances of a hung parliament become more likely in the eyes of the electorate as the polls narrow and the election nears, the Tory leader hopes that any LibDem supporters worried at the uncertainty of a hung parliament will be shepherded into his arms, thinking they can ‘Vote Blue, Go Gold’. But of course many LibDem supporters would like to see a hung or ‘balanced’ parliament, with a real chance of getting some liberal policies into government.
It seems to me that this message is not so much aimed at LibDem supporters as Labour supporters. In some seats, such as Solihull, Hereford, Brecon and Radnorshire and the new seat of Camborne and Redruth, the LibDems have benefited from the ‘conversion’ of natural Labour voters in order to win the Westminster seat. If they return to voting Labour, they may well wake up on 7th May with a Conservative MP and maybe a Conservative government. But my thought is that those sensible enough to make the switch in the first place aren’t going to fall for Dave’s old trick now.
But Cameron’s clarion call may well backfire badly. Around 80% of the Tories top marginals are Labour/Tory battlegrounds. The LibDem vote is small and, as in 1997, is likely to be squeezable. Dave may be banking on the thought that for these minorities, the thought of ‘anything but brown’ will push them towards his ‘LibDemLite’ gang. But what if it works the other way? If enough current LibDem voters are dismayed to hear that the LibDems are the same as the Conservatives, they may be negatively motivated to vote Labour, therefore ensuring the survival of the Labour incumbent.
Finally, Cameron forgets that many LibDem MPs have been elected and stayed as MPs against national swings because they are highly respected as people. The next election is very likely to see people set greater store by the personal qualities of candidates, rather than their party labels. Which is likely to be very good news forMPs such as Adrian Sanders, Susan Kramer, Sandra Gidley and Tom Brake, to name but four. And here in Watford, the news that Cameron believes that there is much common ground between the Conservatives and LibDems and that votes are interchangeable between them will support our view that Conservative supporters here should back the second placed Sal Brinton to rid us of our current Labour incumbent. Not only is that the best way to use a local vote to remove the current government, but clearly Tories have nothing to fear from electing a LibDem.
Cameron claims to set great store on honesty in politics. He says that he wants a ‘fair fight’ at the next election. But the vast majority of voters will immediately see straight through his claims to be a progressive party that has the same commitment to a fair and green society as the LibDems. It was Benjamin Franklin who said over 200 years ago that ‘In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes’. To this we can now add ‘and that a Conservative government would be committed to fairness, equality and environmentalism’.
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